EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|Pac-12 college football preview: USC, Utah among favorites in last season before breakup

It's the end of the Pac-12 as we know it.

There will be EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Centerone final season before eight teams head to new digs. Southern California, UCLA, Oregon and Washington will be joining the Big Ten. Arizona, Arizon State, Colorado and Utah are headed to the Big 12. The remaining four left behind — California, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State — will be looking to spoil the farewell parties of their future ex-rivals.

It should make for an intriguing season — to say the least.

A breakdown of all the teams in order of projected finish:

1. Southern California

The Trojans head into their final season in the Pac-12 as the odds-on favorites. That might speak to the overall precarious state of the league as a whole, but having the reigning Heisman winner feeds that perception as well. Caleb Williams no longer has Jordan Addison to throw to, but he does have four of his next five top targets from 2022 back, and Arizona transfer Dorian Singer also joins the fold. Yes, we all know about the defensive issues, on full display in the late Cotton Bowl meltdown against Tulane. The front will be almost entirely new, but safety Max Williams is back to anchor the secondary.

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2. Utah

The Utes are hopeful that Cam Rising has recovered from the knee injury suffered in January’s Rose Bowl loss to Penn State. If so, the veteran gives the Utes an elite starter and a steadying presence for an offense that still needs to lock down on a lead back. On the defensive side, Utah may struggle to replace cornerback Clark Phillips II but has options at the position, including Mississippi transfer Miles Battle.

3. Oregon State

The Beavers brought in Clemson transfer quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei to juice up an offense that was solid but not spectacular last season. The defense led the Pac-12 in yards allowed but returns several important pieces. If that group can maintain its high standards, don’t be surprised if Oregon State is pushing for a conference championship.

4. Oregon

Look for transfers to make a big impact on defense. Iowa transfer Justin Jacobs, will help the Ducks replace linebacker Noah Sewell. Oregon also added USC transfer Jordan Burch, a former five-star prospect who took a huge step forward. If Burch can help transform the pass rush, look out for the Ducks.

5. Washington

Washington is grouped among the second tier of playoff contenders thanks to coach Kalen DeBoer’s transformation of what had been a wildly underachieving offense. With quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and wide receivers Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan leading the way, this offense will continue to flourish. Add in the pieces for a strong pass rush and you have a good-to-great team capable of winning the Pac-12.

6. UCLA

Chip Kelly has carefully and deliberately built one of the league’s best rosters. Now the question becomes which quarterback takes over for longtime starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The most ballyhooed contender is five-star true freshman Dante Moore, one of the top recruits in modern program history.

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7. Arizona

After fixing the Wildcats’ offense, coach Jedd Fisch looks to do the same to a defense that hasn’t finished higher than 71st nationally in yards allowed per play since 2013. One way to do that is by forcing more turnovers, another annual concern. Arizona has just 27 takeaways the past three seasons (29 games).

8. Washington State

The Cougars tapped 27-year-old coach Ben Arbuckle as offensive coordinator after he spent one season in the same position at Western Kentucky. His 2022 offense at Western Kentucky finished second nationally in passing yards per game. If Arbuckle can get the Washington State passing game going, this team could easily match last year’s seven-win finish.

9. Arizona State

ASU has a couple quality pass-catchers for whichever quarterback grabs the job, whether that’s Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne, holdover Trenton Bourguet or true freshman Jaden Rashada. The best of the bunch is junior Elijhah Badger, last year’s leader in receptions (70), receiving yards (866) and touchdowns (7).

10. California

A more reliable running game is one way to improve the program’s 2-10 record the past two seasons in games decided by a touchdown or less. The offensive line remains pretty much intact while Power Five transfers from Oregon and Tennessee have increased the talent level in the running backs room. TCU transfer quarterback Sam Jackson V will play a part in the ground game.

11. Colorado

The most intriguing team is Colorado, which has embraced an unprecedented rebuild under Deion Sanders and will have an almost brand-new roster. How will this experiment go? The Buffaloes are full of confidence, but a rebuild of this speed and magnitude has never been attempted. While overloaded with newcomers across the board, Colorado has to develop cohesiveness on both lines in a very short window of time. This process often takes more than just months.

12. Stanford

Don’t look for a big turnaround in the standings for the Cardinal and new coach Troy Taylor. One area of focus is a pitiful run defense that has cratered in recent years, finishing 2022 ranked 127th nationally at 224.4 yards allowed per game. Another year near that number spells double-digit losses.

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