TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Center-Matthew Judon trade winners, losers and grades: How did Patriots, Falcons fare in deal?

It's felt like a significant NFL trade has been brewing for weeks. Wednesday evening,TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Center one finally went down – but maybe didn’t involve the headline-grabbing player many had anticipated.

The New England Patriots are offloading LB Matthew Judon, who will turn 32 on Thursday, to the Atlanta Falcons for a 2025 third-round draft pick. Judon, who could make up to $7.5 million in the final season of a four-year, $54.5 million deal, has been seeking an extension.

It remains to be seen if he’ll get one, but that’s no impediment to assessing the winners and losers of this swap nor rendering early grades to each of the clubs involved:

WINNERS

Atlanta Falcons

For a reasonable expense, perhaps quite so if Judon helps the Dirty Birds go where they hope, they get the established pass rusher they’ve been hunting for years. Judon, a four-time Pro Bowler, collected 28 sacks (and 84 pressures) between the 2021 and ’22 seasons before missing most of 2023 with a biceps injury. The Falcons haven’t had a player reach double-digit sacks in a single campaign since Vic Beasley had 15½ in 2016. No Atlanta player has had as many as seven in any of the past four years.

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Matthew Judon

Whether or not he immediately gets the raise he wants – still time for a very fulfilling birthday, pal – he at least lands in what appears to be a more favorable competitive situation with Atlanta, a team that looks ready to win in 2024 and likely more able to showcase Judon’s ability for whomever his 2025 employer winds up being.

New York Jets

Like the Falcons, they’ve acquired a disgruntled edge player – Haason Reddick in the NYJ's case – one who wants a new bag in his walk year. But after sending a conditional 2026 third-rounder to the Philadelphia Eagles for Reddick, 29, a younger and more productive player than Judon, maybe the Jets don’t look like such dummies after being pilloried for a marriage they've so far failed to consummate since obtaining him ... on April Fools' Day, naturally. Perhaps GM Joe Douglas can learn something from the way Atlanta handles Judon's arrival … or maybe misery will just wind up having some much-needed company.

New England Patriots’ new regime

Recently christened executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf and HC Jerod Mayo sent a message in Year 1, post-Bill Belichick – providing a clear signal to their team by excising a disaffected veteran who was seen engaging Mayo in an animated discussion during practice two weeks ago. Good as Judon had been for the Pats, hard to believe he was going to help them contend in 2024 – and moving him eliminates what had become a major distraction for a young roster.

LOSERS

New England Patriots’ new regime

Wolf and Co. handed out several extensions this year to retain mid-tier players like OL Mike Onwenu, TE Hunter Henry, WR Kendrick Bourne and DBs Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers. Seems something of a miscalculation that they didn’t anticipate an issue with Judon, arguably the franchise’s best player in the post-Tom Brady era as well as a respected leader, too. Also, not a great look getting a draft pick – nice as a third-rounder is – that could have accelerated this rebuild four months ago.

NFC South

A division that’s seen the Falcons bunched fairly close to the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in recent seasons might be witnessing something of a separation from Atlanta, which notably signed QB Kirk Cousins in the offseason (before drafting QB Michael Penix Jr. in Round 1) to finally address the void that had lingered behind center since Matt Ryan’s departure after the 2021 season. And new HC Raheem Morris, who’s spent most of his career working on the defensive side of the ball, probably has the personality to connect with Judon as well as the coaching chops to figure out how to optimally deploy him. The Bucs' divisional reign looks increasingly jeopardized.

Brandon Aiyuk and Haason Reddick

Judon got the change of address that might lead to the payday he desires … whenever that might be. Meanwhile, Aiyuk, the San Francisco 49ers’ budding wideout, continues to hold in awaiting resolution – whether via extension and/or trade – to his situation. Reddick remains a holdout with his new team, the Jets, and can now cross off Atlanta as a possible rescuer after he recently demanded a trade out of the New York market. But, hey, maybe the Judon transaction opens the trade floodgates.

New England Patriots’ 2024 outlook

It wasn’t great to begin with, the league’s longest-running dynasty already staring at the possibility of consecutive last-place finishes in the AFC East. Judon’s exit only dims the prospects of a defense that’s also lost emergent DT Christian Barmore (blood clots) indefinitely.

MATT JUDON TRADE GRADES

Atlanta Falcons: B

The deal marks a pretty nice recovery for a team that was widely expected to use the eighth overall pick of the 2024 draft on a pressure player before shockingly opting for Penix. Judon’s acquisition appears to be a very nifty stopgap. If GM Terry Fontenot manages to extend Judon, this grade might bump up to an A given the compensatory cost, perhaps a low Round 3 slot, too, if the Falcons do reach postseason … though it could also drop significantly if Judon opts for the Reddick route with a holdout.

New England Patriots: B-

They (probably) got a decent return for an aging, unhappy player who probably wasn’t going to be around whenever this organization re-emerges as a contender, as owner Robert Kraft so desperately wants. Still, would have been better to recognize that moving Judon was the right play before the 2024 draft rather than belatedly.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.