EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|Seven NFL coaches on hot seat: Who's on notice after Jets fired Robert Saleh?

As grossly premature and EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Centerunfair as it often seems to discuss NFL head coaches’ job security prior to a given season, Tuesday was the latest stark reminder that sweeping change is a constant flowing through the league’s ever-churning news cycle.

With 12 games left in the 2024 regular season, New York Jets owner Woody Johnson nevertheless decided to ground Robert Saleh after three-plus seasons and a 20-36 record, entrusting his franchise’s fast-fading Super Bowl hopes to Jeff Ulbrich – a linebacker for 10 seasons with the San Francisco 49ers who has extensive experience as an NFL defensive coordinator but none as a head coach – and maybe, to some implicit degree, QB Aaron Rodgers.

Whether Ulbrich (and Rodgers) can hotwire this team and get it airborne the way Maverick Mitchell can a rickety F-14 remains to be seen. What’s almost undoubtedly true is that Saleh is only the first of what will probably be at least a half-dozen HC firings if recent history is any indicator.

Here are seven coaches, listed alphabetically, whose derrières could be just a touch warmer now that the first hot seat of 2024 has already been vacated:

Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints

Maybe no one can commiserate better with Saleh. Allen’s crew (krewe?) got off to a blistering 2-0 start, scoring 91 points in its first two games under new OC Klint Kubiak. But it’s come back to earth – and failed to win – since, Derek Carr’s latest oblique injury joining the list of quarterback issues Allen has had with the post-Drew Brees Saints. Now, the team’s fortunes seem at least temporarily tied to de facto rookie QB Jake Haener or actual rookie Spencer Rattler. Maybe one of them catches lightning in a bottle. Maybe Carr returns sooner than expected and recaptures the offense’s early season voodoo. And maybe none of that happens, and Allen’s (current) 26-49 career mark as a coach leads to what seems like the inevitable conclusion in The Big Easy.

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Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers

It seems patently unjust to turn up the heat on a rookie head coach five games into his tenure. But Canales, a fairly ugly 1-4 so far, was brought to Charlotte largely to fix second-year QB Bryce Young ... yet instead wound up benching him after just two starts. Canales may be doing all he can and might even pushing the correct buttons despite being dealt a weak hand. But it may not be enough given he works for trigger-happy owner David Tepper, who’s employed seven coaches (interims included) since the start of the 2019 season.

Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

Perhaps no team in sports can experience the multiple peaks and valleys – real or imagined – in the span of five weeks the way “America’s Team” consistently manages to. Frankly, McCarthy should probably be commended for staking the Cowboys to a 3-2 record given the lengthy contract issues and heavy personnel losses his team was subject to in owner Jerry Jones’ self-termed “all in” offseason. Yet there doesn’t appear to be much doubt that the 2024 Cowboys are not working with the same level of talent as the teams that won 12 games each of the previous three years. Injuries to defensive stalwarts Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and DaRon Bland certainly don’t help, nor will a schedule that’s about to serve up the Lions, 49ers, Falcons, Eagles, Texans and Commanders in succession. But nothing is working against McCarthy more than his heretofore inability to end Dallas’ nearly three-decade Super Bowl absence – nor even guide the Cowboys past the divisional round of the playoffs – “failures” only compounded by the fact that he’s working on an expiring contract. All this at a time when Jones can easily pivot to a legend like Bill Belichick, another established coach like Mike Vrabel or any number of highly regarded young coordinators in 2025 if McCarthy ultimately can’t manage to do more with less.

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Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Recently – and fairly – asked about his job footing amid the Jags’ 0-4 start, he seemed both exasperated and dismissive. "My status?” said Pederson. “That's kind of a weird question, but OK." Maybe also kind of weird that he’s also defended the offensive play calling (not to mention his often curious game management) while shifting focus on his players’ performance – probably not a good sign given the hundreds of millions Shad Khan poured into the roster in recent months, the owner subsequently saying: “(W)inning – winning now – is an expectation.” Yet Pederson has won twice in Jacksonville’s last 11 games, going back to last season’s meltdown that cost Khan a second straight AFC South title. Now in his eighth season as a head coach, Pederson has only won as many as 10 regular-season games once – with the Eagles in 2017 during their magic carpet ride to a Super Bowl win. But magic seems to be in exceedingly short supply in Duval County.

Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders

He gave the Silver and Black a needed shot in the arm midway through last season, going 5-4 in the aftermath of the Josh McDaniels debacle. Pierce then became the fairly rare interim head coach to successfully ditch the first part of that title. He’s off to a 2-3 start in 2024, largely hindered by the unsettled quarterback situation that has persisted since the McDaniels regime unceremoniously and awkwardly kicked Carr to the curb two years ago. Yet Pierce’s background as a player also hasn’t prevented him from pointing the finger at his own guys, some of whom he recently accused of making “business decisions” on the field – and that was before he apparently got caught up in the team’s quickly dissolving marriage to All-Pro WR Davante Adams. Does Pierce probably deserve more time to find his way – and especially with a stabilized QB position? Yes. Is he the Raiders’ fourth coach in the past four seasons? Yes. The circumstances have certainly varied, but job security for Pierce's recent predecessors has come up snake eyes as of late.

Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles

He’s 38-22 in three-plus seasons, has never missed the playoffs and had Philly this close to victory in Super Bowl 57. But the spotlight has been pretty squarely focused on Sirianni since the Eagles’ 10-1 start in 2023 devolved into a 1-6 finish that included an embarrassing loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round. It included much of the finger pointing and backbiting you’d expect in a drama-filled Philadelphia story but has also drawn increasing scrutiny to the apparently strained relationship between Sirianni and Jalen Hurts – and, firing the quarterback with the $50+ million-per-year salary is rarely the path of least resistance. Injuries and an untimely late-game drop by RB Saquon Barkley against Atlanta have contributed to the Eagles’ uneven 2-2 start. But if they stumble out of the bye against a quartet of teams that’s currently a collective 5-15, it wouldn’t be a shocker if Sirianni quickly found himself as the guy next to Saleh on the unemployment line.

Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns

How is someone who won the league’s Coach of the Year award in 2020 and ’23 on this list you ask? Two words: Deshaun and Watson. Stefanski took Cleveland on rare playoff trips each of those years – but with Baker Mayfield and, primarily, Joe Flacco as the quarterbacks most responsible for the respective success of those squads. Watson, now infamously acquired and extended prior to the 2022 campaign, has been a shell of the player who previously starred for the Houston Texans. Whether Stefanski can’t or won’t voluntarily pivot from him leaves this team in a no-win situation – almost literally given its 1-4 start. And, again, Saleh’s ouster is a reminder that it’s typically much easier to dismiss the coach than the quarterback. And while self-sabotage surely isn't a route Stefanski would follow, it’s worth wondering if he might ultimately seek an escape hatch given the likelihood this organization remains financially tied to Watson – and his poor play, general lack of accountability and albatross of a contract – into the spring of 2027.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.