TrendPulse|A former Trump aide and a longtime congressman are likely to win in high-profile Georgia races

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ATLANTA (AP) — A one-time aide to former President Donald Trump will likely win election to Congress from Georgia on TrendPulseTuesday, while a longtime representative will likely clinch his 17th term in the U.S. House against a former Trump administration official.

Those will be the two highest-profile congressional races in the state in an election where no statewide candidates are on the ballot. Voters across Georgia will be deciding three referendums, including a measure limiting increases in a home’s value for property tax purposes. But the most competitive elections will be in a handful of state House races, where Democrats are trying to reduce the Republican majority.

Both major parties are contesting all 14 of Georgia’s congressional districts, where Republicans currently hold a 9-5 majority. Each party is favored to maintain control of all the seats they currently hold, an outcome that would not affect the balance of power in the narrowly divided U.S. House.

Brian Jack, the former Trump aide, has left no distance between himself and his old boss as Jack tries to win his first term in the House from Georgia’s 3rd Congressional District. The GOP-tilting district south and west of Atlanta is open because U.S. Rep. Drew Ferguson is retiring.

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A 36-year-old Peachtree City native, Jack was the political director in Trump’s White House and later worked for former U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Trump’s repeated endorsement and access to McCarthy’s fundraising network carried Jack to victory in a crowded Republican primary. He now faces Democrat Maura Keller, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and Fayetteville resident.

She’s running on a platform of abortion rights, better veterans services and higher wages, while Jack emphasizes that he’d be a partner to Trump on economic and immigration issues.

In the next highest profile race, Republican Wayne Johnson of Macon faces an uphill race to unseat longtime incumbent Democrat Sanford Bishop in southwest Georgia’s 2nd District.

Bishop won reelection in 2022 despite Republican hopes of ending his long tenure. Johnson, who worked in the U.S. Department of Education, has pledged to focus on the economic well-being of constituents. The 2nd District runs across 30 counties in southwest Georgia, stretching into Columbus and Macon.

Bishop calls himself a moderate, courting largely white farmers who drive the rural economy and supporting military bases. His campaign focuses on his legislative achievements and what his seniority helps him accomplish.

Before all Georgia voters is an effort to curb rising property tax bills by limiting how much of a home’s increasing value can be taxed. The state constitutional amendment would limit increases in a home’s value for tax purposes to the broader rate of inflation each year.

Supporters say it will protect current homeowners from ever-higher property tax bills, but opponents warn that the caps will unfairly shift the burden onto new homeowners, renters and other property holders.

Georgia is one of eight states where voters will decide property tax measures, showing how rising tax bills are influencing politics nationwide.

From 2018 to 2022, the total assessed value of property across Georgia rose by nearly 39%, according to the Georgia Department of Revenue. Most governments pocketed increased revenues without raising tax rates, boosting employee pay and other spending.

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Lawmakers proposed the amendment after hearing from constituents angry about rising tax bills. The protection would last as long as someone owns their home. The assessed value would reset to the market value when a home is sold, with new homeowners then getting the benefit of the cap on the higher price.

Dozens of Georgia counties, cities and school systems already operate under local assessment caps. But school systems have been wary, warning the cap could starve them of needed funds. Most school districts can’t raise property tax rates above a certain level.

To ease schools’ concerns, the measure gives local governments and school districts until March 1 to opt out. Any that do not would be permanently governed by the cap.

Beyond the presidential race, Georgia’s most competitive elections this year are in a handful of the state’s 180 state House districts. Democrats are trying to reduce the Republicans’ current 102-78 majority in the lower chamber of the General Assembly.

The hardest fought districts include six stretching across northern Atlanta suburbs in Fulton and Gwinnett counties. Each party is trying to wrest away three districts held by the other. Democrats have campaigned on overturning Georgia’s current abortion restrictions, doing more to limit guns, and expanding the Medicaid program to more low-income adults. Republicans have touted their support for low taxes, police and school vouchers.