SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:How tough is Saints' open coaching job? A closer look at New Orleans' imposing landscape

One pathway to losing a coveted NFL coaching job?SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center Fall to the lowly Carolina Panthers two months after beating their brakes off in a hope-fueled 47-10 opener.

Thus was the fate of now-former New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen, who was dismissed Monday morning – not even a full day after a 23-22 defeat in Charlotte ran the Saints’ losing streak to seven … and in the wake of a 2-0 start in which they outscored their opponents, the Panthers and Dallas Cowboys, 91-29. For Allen, he’s now lost both of his NFL head jobs midway through Year 3, his latest dismissal coming 10 years after the Oakland Raiders dropped him following an 0-4 start to the 2014 season. Previously their defensive coordinator, Allen was in his 15th season with the Saints and finishes his tenure as their HC with an 18-25 record. He’s 26-53 overall and has never guided a team to postseason. Owner Gayle Benson cited his loyalty and professionalism but moved forward with the change anyway.

Yet like his situation in the East Bay a decade ago, Allen departs a posting that comes with serious challenges. So let’s explore how enticing the Saints job is:

Quarterback situation

Since coming to the Big Easy last year, Derek Carr has pretty much been what he was with the Raiders – solid, fine, steady ... unspectacular. He’s gone 11-12 in his 23 starts with the Saints, passing for 34 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while posting a 98.0 QB rating that’s more than six points better than his mark with the Silver and Black. However he’s averaged a shade under 222 yards through the air in New Orleans, which is 26.1 fewer than his figure with the Raiders.

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It's a decent body of work, especially considering some of the protection problems Carr has had and a steady rate of injuries affecting his receiver corps. It’s also not exactly what New Orleans was hoping for after signing him to a four-year, $150 million contract last year – the franchise trying to restore itself as an NFC South power after wallowing around .500 following Drew Brees’ retirement in the aftermath of the 2020 season. Yet it’s been status quo with Carr, the club mired in a rut and with almost zero chance of qualifying for its first playoff game since Brees and Co. were ousted four years ago in the last one by Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the way to their Super Bowl 55 victory and subsequent dominance of the division at large.

Youngsters Spencer Rattler, 24, and Jake Haener, 25, mostly struggled in recent weeks after getting opportunities to play while Carr missed three starts with an oblique injury. Rattler’s potential dates back to his high school days and sometimes-promising tenures at the University of Oklahoma and University of South Carolina. The rookie was the first quarterback drafted this year outside the first round (Round 5) and didn’t exactly get to play with a full deck given the Saints’ heap of injury issues.

Still, with a 2-7 record, New Orleans is on track to own a top-five pick in next year’s draft. Cutting Carr in 2025 would mean a $50 million dead cap hit but would spare the Saints from paying his base salary, which balloons from $1.2 million in 2024 to $30 million next year and $50 million in 2026. It would also stand to reason that a new coach, especially an offensively minded one, likely would prefer to chart a course that doesn't include Carr in what would likely be a bridge or obviously temporary role.

Roster

There are a lot of name brands here – LB Demario Davis, DE Cam Jordan, RB Alvin Kamara, CB Marshon Lattimore and DB Tyrann Mathieu among them. But aside from Kamara, who just signed a two-year extension, they’re all pretty much in concerning decline. GM Mickey Loomis admitted in a statement Monday morning that Allen had also been victimized by "an avalanche of injuries."

The future foundation will seemingly be comprised of relative youngsters such as DT Bryan Bresee, LT Taliese Fuaga, DE Carl Granderson, C Erik McCoy, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, WR Chris Olave, G Cesar Ruiz, WR Rashid Shaheed, DB Alontae Taylor and LB Pete Werner. It doesn’t necessarily seem like a nascent powerhouse, yet it’s also far from an empty cupboard.

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Salary cap

No team runs up the NFL version of credit card debt like this one, and it could be an important consideration for anyone who chooses to team with Loomis, now in his 23rd season with the small-market franchise and currently the NFL’s longest-serving general manager. Under Loomis, the Saints typically spread out contractual cap hits by adding void years to player contracts. New Orleans is currently more than $60 million overspent in 2025, per Over The Cap – the largest figure in the league by orders of magnitude – and that’s before incurring the potential hit that would be created by parting with Carr. The team typically does a series of significant restructures and/or releases every March to become cap compliant, but that can handcuff the Saints once free agency begins in earnest. DE Chase Young, who signed a one-year, $13 million pact, was the only significant addition earlier this year. And given how matters are trending, New Orleans likely won’t be a plum destination for veterans in 2025, either.

2025 draft

The Saints are currently one of nine teams with two wins, meaning they’re squarely in the mix to get the No. 1 overall pick next year and will select early in each of the first five rounds – given they continue to own all of their choices in those slots. They should land a nice cluster of players, though it doesn’t presently appear this draft has a bumper crop of quarterbacks.

Outlook

When you’re talking about one of 32 jobs, prospective coaching candidates are unlikely to turn their noses up at the Saints. There’s enough to like here and (currently) a stable enough front office and ownership situation that the successor to Allen – he was promoted in 2022 after predecessor Sean Payton’s surprising and belated “retirement” – should get a decent runway to flourish. Any coach able to pick his next job might want the assurance of a longer-term commitment between team and city. But few fans are as passionate as New Orleans’, and the civic bond to the organization was only strengthened by Hurricane Katrina. This may not be the best vacant job in 2025, but it should hardly be the worst, either.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.